By: The Scribe and Olajide Oladokun
Before the general election of 2015 that brought Rt. Major General Muhammadu Buhari in as the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the general populace assumed he was the long awaited messiah, hence the widespread of his ‘change’ crusade. And being the experienced politician that he was, he rode on the naivety of the people to become the President of the World’s most populous black nation. Unfortunately, it’s about eight years down this road led by ‘Sai Baba’, but things have only gone worse rather than change.
As we move closer to the 2023 general elections, the focus of the electorate is on the three major candidates in the race, Peter Obi of the Labour Party, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party and Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress. UCJ UI looks at their strengths, weaknesses, and chances as they warm up for the contest in February 2023.
PETER OBI
Another messiah seems to have emerged, a man ‘wey no dey give shishi’, a man whose supporters will allow no blasphemy against his holy name; a man who has won the presidency already, only if the election will be conducted on social media. In this writer’s opinion, Peter Obi’s victory at the poll is not guaranteed, as ‘Obidients’ want us to believe.
STRENGTHS
One shouldn’t turn a blind eye to the growing popularity of Obi, as it is evident on social media and the ‘one million man march’ organized by his supporters nationwide. There is also the will of the young people to put into consideration. With unspoken agreement, they have decided not to leave power in the hands of the senior citizens anymore and of the major trio, Obi is obviously the youngest. Should the youths decide to throw their weight behind him on the basis of age, then he has the edge.
WEAKNESSES AND CHANCES
Interestingly, the 2023 general election will break the jinx of having to choose between two major political parties that have dominated the national scene since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999. For the first time, Nigerians are presented with a non – binary major choice. More interestingly, the three major contenders for the big seat are spread across the major ethnic groups in Nigeria. However, we must not forget that the South – East region, where Peter Obi hails from, has the lowest voters’ population among the three contenders.
For Obi to emerge victorious in a country with 176,846 polling units, he needs a mass majority votes – 25% of votes in at least 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states. The big question then is, how does he plan to achieve this? Perhaps if he was contesting under a political party with grassroots structure, then it would not seem so impossible. But from all indications, Labour Party is neither so popular nor capable of getting him the required number of votes, looking at the party’s performance at the last gubernatorial election in Osun State.
Apart from structure, history has it that no political outcast has ever won Nigeria’s presidency and 2023 may not be an exception. For a candidate hoping to win at the polls, Peter Obi’s Labour Party has just 3 elected political office holders across the Federation.
In the House of Representatives, LP has just two of their members there out of 360 reps. LP can only boast of 1 out of 109 senators in the Upper Chamber while the party has no member governing any of the 36 states in Nigeria. In the same vein, there are 991 members of the states’ houses of assembly in Nigeria in which LP has no member there. One can then conclude that LP has no representation at the grassroots, no wonder all their previous attempts at elections all ended up in failure.
ATIKU ABUBAKAR
The Presidential Flag bearer of the People’s Democratic Party, Atiku Abubakar, who has been in this game for decades is also contesting after three failed attempts in the past and the 2023 election seems to be his last shot.
STRENGTHS
On the bank that he hails from the Northern part of the country and considering his past and recent relationship with his region, he’d focus on the northern electorate for votes. Owing to the population of the northern electorate (which is the highest), Tinubu is laying his tent there too trying to create a bond with the Northern elite and also throwing another sharp card by picking his running mate (Shettima) from the region. This, many analysts consider to be a desperate card.
With this in consideration, Atiku clearly believes that his major strength and what can accumulate vote for him lies within the Northern states. In one of his statements sometime this year where he was agitating and calling out unto Northerners to make sure they cast their votes for a Northern candidate, this was said as he was of the idea that Tinubu possess the same thought of gaining the trust of the Northern for votes. In all, the major strength of Atiku heading to the 2023 elections center on him eyeing to get the bulk of votes from the North.
WEAKNESSES
As Atiku will be eyeing the North for help, he likewise has huge stumbling blocks that can send his dreams sinking deep. Firstly, the adoption of Shettima, a northerner as Tinubu’s running mate by the All Progressives Congress will serve as a divider sword that will split the northern votes between the two. Secondly, the All Progressives Congress has 12 Northern Governors out of the 17 APC Governors in the country, this depicts how well grounded the party is in that part of the country. This would then put a question mark on how well Atiku will accumulate votes in the north. We should also note that majority of these northern APC governors already pledged their allegiance to Tinubu.
Thirdly, the internal crisis within the People’s Democratic Party as the likes of Wike, Makinde, Ortom and Mimiko turned their backs on Atiku, it will surely tell to a large extent on his chances of winning the coming presidential election. At the apex of the party’s internal crisis group is Wike who has shifted his grounds to Tinubu and Obi. Also, these top party men of the party are of the feeling that the next president of Nigeria is meant to come from the southern part of the country and not from the north. In addition to the party’s division is the Ayu vs Makinde vs Party duel where Makinde through a recent radio interview made it known that as long as Ayu remains the Party’s National President, his alliance go to a southern candidate.
CHANCES
With the analysis of Atiku’s strength and weakness, it shows that his weaknesses are of a stronger force than his strengths. His chances of securing a huge number of votes from the northern part of the county has been put into shambles considering Tinubu’s ground lay-out and Shettima also in the picture (along with Tinubu). This along with the APC firm influence in the north will be a long tape rule that will measure his winning odds. The votes in this part of the country will be largely divided between him and Tinubu in percentage of 40-55 and the last 5 going to Peter Obi.
In the South East, which serves as Peter Obi’s bank of votes, Atiku has a slim chance in this part of the country. But with Okowa being his running mate, he can still get about 15% of the votes. In the South Western part of the country which is largely in the bag for Tinubu, Atiku’s chances of securing votes here is quite minimal, he might get less than 10% of the votes.
BOLA AHMED TINUBU (BAT)
A godfather popular for his tactical approach to politics; a man who has passed excellently in the classroom of political disciplines. Jagaban, as he is fondly called, says he wants to be King.
Owing to this ambition, BAT has received strong lashes from some certain individuals as they see him as a king maker trying to make himself a king.
STRENGTHS
BAT has built for himself a strong political network. He has men in all places of power and they are always ready to break heads for him. Even the push for a southern president is being supported by the APC northern governors and with the long legs BAT has designed for himself, he is on flying machines.
BAT has to his face a rock political goodwill along the years. He played big roles in the rise to fame of well known individuals in government today. Through his political acumen, he had a hand in the victory of the current president of the country, also in the cabinet is the minister of interior, Rauf Aregbesola, who was the commissioner for Works and Infrastructure in Lagos during the government of BAT. The present Minister of Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola, who served as a two term governor in Lagos state (2007 – 2015), but in the administration of BAT, he served as the chief of staff in which BAT was given the credit for discovering him.
WEAKNESSES
On a matter of his health status, members of the public are questioning his fitness to run for the president of Nigeria and also the fact that he is too old at 70 years old. He spent three months abroad on health complications in 2021 and has also spent some vacations abroad this year mainly due to his health condition. If this is to be considered (which is certainly being considered), it might deal a huge blow to his presidential ambition.
Many also believe he is a fantastically corrupt politician. His source of enormous wealth is shrouded in secrecy. He had also been investigated in the past by the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC), and the United States Department of Justice for alleged money laundering and other financial crimes.
His choice of a Muslim running mate is also generating concerns among Nigerians.
CONCLUSION
Irrespective of the above facts, figures, permutation and speculations, we are not making any predictions as all three candidates will bring their A-games to ensure they emerge victorious.
